Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
